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Understanding the outbreak of COVID-19 in Ecuador

Abstract:

In this study is presented a mathematical approach that can be used to estimate the variability of the growth rate coefficient (λ), the total number of cases, and the midpoint of maximum infection due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The different parameters are quantified using one-year data set reported for Ecuador (from March 2020 to February 2021) and the (discrete or differential) logistic model. In particular, the results evidence that the most critical months of the pandemic in Ecuador were March and April 2020. In the following months, the outbreak continues with low growth rate values but in a variable way, which can be attributed to state health policies and the social behavior of the population. The estimated number of confirmed cases is around 409 K agrees with the data reported at the end of May 2021, validating the proposed mathematical approach.