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Useful energy is a meaningful approach to building the decarbonization: A case of study of the Ecuadorian transport sector

Abstract:

Here, we propose the first useful energy balance of Ecuadorian transport. Then we model the energy demand up to 2050 through three prospective scenarios developed in LEAP to assess significant sector decarbonization. The aim is to determine the reduction of final energy by replacing fossil fuels with electricity and applying sustainable policies in the whole sector. The analysis for the base year (2018) indicates that transport consumes 62 587 ± 7441 and 14 001 ± 1744 GWh for final and useful energy, respectively, corresponding to 22.37% of conversion. Therefore, by 2050 Ecuador will require between 21 783 (optimistic scenario) and 28 241 (pessimistic scenario) GWh of useful energy. The conversion in the first scenario was 30.71%, whereas it decreased to 22.02% in the second scenario, showing the beneficial effect of greener policies. The model presents a significant decarbonization of the total fleet from 0.002% to 40%, corresponding to 28 371 GWh of useful energy by 2050. To validate this finding, we evaluated the renewable electric potential of Ecuador, considering the functioning and feasible future generation projects. As a result, we calculated that this goal could be achieved with 23.9% of the total capacity. Therefore, future studies can focus on the possibility of total decarbonization of the sector employing the global efficiencies presented here.