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Using a delphi technique to determine the likelihood and tourism impact of a Chikungunya outbreak in the United States

Abstract:

The Delphi technique is a qualitative technique which consists of a series of systematic steps to combine the knowledge and opinion of experts regarding a specific topic and reach a consensus as a means of scenario building and forecasting. This technique is rarely used in tourism, albeit it has been recommended since 1990 (Green, H., Hunter, C., & Moore, B. [1990]. Assessing the environmental impact of tourism development: Use of the Delphi technique. Tourism Management, 11(2), 111–120). The goal of this research note is to demonstrate use of the Delphi technique as a means of building a richer depth of understanding about the likelihood of a Chikungunya outbreak and the impact to the tourism industry.