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Using remote sensing and a cellular automata-markov chains-GEOMOD model for the quantification of the future spread of an invasive plant: A case study of Psidium guajava in Isabela Island, Galapagos

Abstract:

Plant invasive species are one of the most important threats to the ecological stability of the Galapagos Islands and Psidium guajava is one of the most aggressive invasive plants: it currently occupies large areas in the middle and upper zones of some of the islands. This study measures the future spread of Psidium guajava in the south-east area of Isabela Island, Galapagos. Satellite image processing was used to calculate the area of occupation in the years 1980, 2001 and 2009. Then, a Cellular Automata-Markov chains- GEOMOD (CAMarkovGEOMOD) model was made in order to represent a possible area of future occupancy of Psidium guajava. Results show a continuous invasion of this species in the entire study area and the model offuture spread pbkp_redicts a greater extension of occupation areas in 2030: a spreading rate of 108, 64 Ha/year between 2009 and 2030 was calculated. These results provide a better understanding of the spreading situation of this invasive species, which would support decision making processes to control the invasion