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Where To Go? Drivers of Venezuelan Asylum Seekers

Abstract:

This article reports an investigation of the drivers of Venezuelan asylum seekers - people who have left this country given the scarcity of food and medicines and the troubled actual socio-economic situation. To do so, we use data about the main countries in which Venezuelans have claimed for asylum during the period 2014-17. Using a panel-regression model, we have found that Venezuelan asylum seekers increase, on average, in countries that (i) are geographically nearby Venezuela, (ii) are less politically stable and (iii) have higher real income per capita, lower inflation rates and higher unemployment rates. Still, such a general profile of countries preferred by Venezuelan asylum seekers is nuanced by the small magnitude of the effects regarding the economic variables: it appears that Venezuelan asylum seekers hardly consider the economic situation of a country for deciding to stay. Furthermore, the empirical evidence provided by our model reflects the deterioration of Venezuela's socio-economic aspects.