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Estimating the Electric Generation Capacity of a Micro-Hydropower Plant through Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract:

This research aimed to estimate the electric generation capacity for the planning of micro-hydropower plants using Monte Carlo simulation with flow rate as the random variable. The Monte Carlo simulation code was developed in the Matlab computational program, specifically using the Appdesigner extension. Subsequently, to validate the simulation, historical flow rate data from the Otavalo River were obtained and used as a case study to determine the behavior of the simulated flow rate compared to the real values. Additionally, the variables involved in hydropower generation were determined. The obtained results of simulated hydropower generation were compared with the actual values from a micro-hydropower plant located in the studied river, resulting in average annual values of 208 kW and 220 kW for the real and simulated values, respectively, over a five-year period. The absolute error value was calculated as 1.27%. These findings demonstrate that the utilization of Monte Carlo simulation for estimating hydropower generation is suitable for the planning of micro-hydropower plants.