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The Multiscale Assessment of Infrastructure Vulnerability to River Floods in Andean Areas: A Case Study of the Chibunga River in the Parish of San Luis, Ecuador

Abstract:

This research evaluates the vulnerability of public infrastructure in San Luis parish, Riobamba canton, Ecuador, to the flood risk posed by the Chibunga River under return period scenarios of 10, 50, 100, and 500 years. The main objective was to identify the most exposed systems—such as drinking water, sewerage, power grid, and utility poles—in order to prioritize mitigation measures. The methodology combined hydrometeorological analysis, hydraulic modeling using HEC-HMS and Iber, and the estimation of economic losses through the DaLA methodology. The results reveal that the low vulnerability of the drinking water system, as less than 0.08% of the network’s length, is at risk in the high-to-very-high range, even in a scenario with a 500-year return period. On the other hand, there is evidence of high exposure of the sewerage network in extreme scenarios, considering that 49.15% is at high-to-very-high risk in the worst-case scenario. Furthermore, as the return period increases, there is a growing impact on the electrical network, where the proportion of assets at high-to-very-high risk increases from 0.60% to 6.88% for high voltage, 0.00% to 18.03% for low voltage, and 0.00% to 1.18% for streetlights for a return period of 10 to 500 years. It should be noted that the estimated direct economic losses amount to USD 84,162.86 when taking into account the worst-case scenario. In this regard, the novelty of this study lies in the integration of technical, hydraulic, and economic analyses for a scarcely studied rural Andean area, providing crucial data for preventive risk management. It concludes that investment in prevention is more cost-effective than post-disaster reconstruction, recommending the strengthening of the sewerage system’s hydraulic capacity and the optimization of electrical infrastructure protection.