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ECOS 2022: Ecological, spatial and critical material footprints as limiting indicators of sustainability in a bioregion

Abstract:

The Cantabrian-Mediterranean Bioregion is a geographical area with sufficient resources to constitute a unit of resilience that addresses, with a global vision in the medium and long term, the challenges posed by adaptation to the climate emergency, as well as the planning of a harmonious and sustainable balanced development. This work aims to analyse the resources needed to decarbonise the economy through electrification and their possible consequences. Based on current energy demand, future demand estimates have been established for the 2030 and 2050 scenarios. The 2030 scenario is based on the Spanish government's planning. In the 2050 scenario, the final demands of an economy with net-zero emissions have been estimated by transforming the energy sources of each sector with current well-known technologies. The renewable sources necessary to satisfy the demands in both scenarios and the energy dependence between regions have been calculated. Because of the imbalance between energy producer-consumer regions a balanced transition scenario is proposed. The necessary resources, possible limitations in using renewable sources and critical materials needed have also been analysed. The results show the high critical material footprint necessary to electrify the economy in a global context, and the decarbonisation of energy sources is not sufficient to obtain a unitary ecological footprint. Critical material footprint serves as an indicator of the supply risk of mineral materials and provides the limits of transition and development. Because of the ecological and critical material footprint indicators, an efficient scenario is proposed where energy consumption is reduced by changing the modes of consumption.