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Disentangling Eastern Pacific Warming: El Niño 2023–2024 vs seasonal Panamá Bay influence

Abstract:

Understanding the drivers of coastal ocean warming in the eastern Pacific is critical for distinguishing local variability from large‑scale climate phenomena such as El Niño. This study tests the hypothesis that anomalous warming in northern Ecuadorian coastal waters during January 2024 was primarily driven by the seasonal intrusion of Panamá Bay waters rather than the developing 2023–2024 El Niño event. Oceanographic and meteorological data were collected aboard the Pourquoi Pas? research vessel and compared against climatology (1940–2024), the 1997–1998 El Niño, and satellite observations. Winds were predominantly south-westerly, exceeding climatological averages while sea surface temperatures showed a pronounced south–north gradient. Salinity and mixed‑layer depths remained within seasonal ranges. The Intertropical Convergence Zone persisted north. Comparative analysis revealed weak or absent El Niño signals, with no discernible climatic impacts, wind, rain, thermocline and 20 C depths, T/S relationships, which were within seasonal values corroborated with biological and meteorological indicators. Instead, the seasonal incursion of Panamá Bay waters was the dominant warming driver. These findings refine understanding of eastern Pacific variability and provide the first deep profiles from this region, including serendipitous evidence of Antarctic Intermediate Water at ~1000 m, thereby enhancing observational coverage in a historically undersampled area.