The impact of climate change over the potential evolution of the glaciers of Antizana volcano

Abstract:

Glaciers cover approximately 10 % of the Earth's land surface and are sensitive indicators of climate change, particularly in the tropical Andes, where small climatic variations can significantly impact their extent. This study analyzed the glacial retreat of the Antizana Glacial System (AGS) by identifying influential variables, assessing glacial evolution using satellite imagery, and developing a predictive model for 2060 under two climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Historical climate data, including temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind speed were used alongside Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS-R) to relate these variables to glacier surface evolution. Results showed that temperature and precipitation are the most important variables in the predictive model. The glacier area decreased from 18.31 km² in 1990 to 15 km² in 2020, a reduction of 18.07 %. The PLS-R model explained 84 % of the variability in glacier coverage, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.3. Climate projections for 2060 indicate that glacier area could decrease to 6.34 km² under an optimistic scenario (SSP1-2.6) and 4.84 km² under a pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5), representing losses of 65.37 % and 73.56 %, respectively, compared to 1990. These findings underscore the vulnerability of tropical glaciers to global warming, affecting biodiversity and water availability for local communities. Continuous monitoring is crucial to better understand their future evolution amid climate change. This study provides a foundation for decision-making on glacier conservation and mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources and regional climate.

Año de publicación:

2026

Keywords:

• GIS
• Partial least squares regression (PLS-R)
• predictive modeling
• Remote Sensing
• Tropical glaciers

Fuente:

scopus