Regresar

Structural study and prospective analysis of greenhouse gases

Abstract:

Climate change has caused the need to carry out actions to mitigate it. The European Union has already launched actions that set goals for horizon years for 2030 (Sustainable Development Goals) and for 2050 as EU Objective 55 within the European Green Deal. Therefore, predictive models must be developed that analyze the current situation and its future. To do this, CO2 emissions will be analyzed through their decomposition into four components such as energy mix, population, energy intensity and economic activity, applying the LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) methodology and using different scenarios such as B1 for the territory of the OECD90 in the “IPCC Special Report”. The trend calculation is carried out through the free software “Python” using the ARIMA-SARIMAX models. Among the results we already obtain that the most determining factor when it comes to reducing emissions is the one related to energy intensity. Regarding the reduction of emissions compared to 1990, we obtained 39,27 and 58% for the EU-27 and 12 and 39% in Spain in the years 2030 and 2050 respectively in the most favorable trend model.