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Expansion risk of Fusarium oxysporum f. cubense (Nectriaceae) in the face of climate change in continental Ecuador

Abstract:

Background and Aims: The fungus Fusarium oxysporum f. cubense strongly affects banana. Due to the climatic changes expected, particular in Ecuador, the pathogen expansion could be favored and cause considerable economic losses for agriculture. In this istudy, the changes in the potential geographic distribution of F. oxysporum f. cubense under various climate change scenarios in continental Ecuador were evaluated. Methods: We extracted 77 F. oxysporum f. cubense records from international databases and scientific literature. The bioclimatic variables were taken from Worldclim, for the present and for 2050 and 2070, under different climate change scenarios. Using the Maximum Entropy algorithm, the species’ climate niche model was obtained and projected to a mitigating (SSP-126), a cautious (SSP-245) and an extreme (SSP-585) gas emissions scenario. Key results: The model performed well and adequately predicted areas with environmental conditions like the sites with records of F. oxysporum f. cubense. Favorable conditions appear mainly in the Sierra and Costa regions. Under the climate scenarios, the greatest expansion of favorable conditions will occur in the Coast region, in the mitigation scenario (SSP-126) for 2050, with an increase of 18,550 km2 with respect to the current potential distribution. Conclusions: If greenhouse gas emissions generate a climate in 2050 like the one simulated in SSP-126, favorable conditions for this fungus will exceed the current ones and it will expand within the Coast towards the banana production areas. This will have a negative impact on the economy of banana producers.