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A model for the scenario analysis based on diffuse cognitive maps: A case study in biomedical software

Abstract:

The scenario analysis is a strategic planning method frequently used in technological management. The use of diffuse cognitive maps for this purpose is an approach that, despite being relatively recent, has increasingly gained attention. One of the main difficulties of this approach is related to the qualitative interpretation that is often given to the simulation results using this technique. In this paper, we propose a new model that uses the ordered weighted average operators (OWA) on the notion of distance for the scenario analysis based on diffuse cognitive maps. Among the advantages and innovations is the structuring of the process, the possibility of sorting out the alternatives in a flexible way by allowing to express the degree of acceptance of the risks and the level of compensation among the criteria through the weight vector of the OWA operator. We present an application example for the analysis of the business case in an organization that develops biomedical software, in order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposal.