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Assessing rainfall probabilities using ENSO cycle events on the coast of Ecuador

Abstract:

Monthly precipitation data from four meteorological stations located on the Ecuadorian coast were analysed, using the WFCC and WTC software, to assess rainfall probabilities during ENSO cycle events. During the warm phase, the rainfall probabilities obtained correlated with the observed data, showing high values on FCC and the statistic G2. Therefore it is deduced that the software would work very well in this phase. However, rainfall probabilities during the cold phase did not correlate with the observed data and correlations were limited to certain conditions like the rainfall trends, that was close to the average or bigger than this, although the years in the study were Niña. This is probably a response to the fact that the smallest value is the zero, therefore introducing a bias towards positive values. Copyright © 2006 IAHS Press.