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Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Abstract:

The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01 by Public Health England1, was first identified in the UK in late summer to early autumn 20202. Whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing for COVID-19 show an extremely rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during autumn 2020, suggesting that it has a selective advantage. Here we show that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that B.1.1.7 has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if it has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with cases of B.1.1.7 including a larger share of under 20-year-olds than non-VOC cases. We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers for B.1.1.7 and co-circulating lineages using SGTF and genomic data. The best-supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups, but all analyses agreed that B.1.1.7 has a substantial transmission advantage over other lineages, with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.

Año de publicación:

2021

Keywords:

    Fuente:

    scopusscopus

    Tipo de documento:

    Article

    Estado:

    Acceso abierto

    Áreas de conocimiento:

    • Infección
    • Epidemiología
    • Salud pública

    Áreas temáticas:

    • Medicina forense; incidencia de enfermedades
    • Bioquímica
    • Enfermedades

    Contribuidores:

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    Gaythorpe K.Gaythorpe K.
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    Laydon D.J.Laydon D.J.
    Chand M.Chand M.
    Patel A.Patel A.
    Koshy C.Koshy C.
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    Afifi S.Afifi S.
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    Fleming V.M.Fleming V.M.
    Jorgensen D.Jorgensen D.
    Jackson D.K.Jackson D.K.
    Menegazzo M.Menegazzo M.
    Guest M.Guest M.
    Fraser C.Fraser C.
    Fallon K.Fallon K.
    Howson-Wells H.C.Howson-Wells H.C.
    Snell L.B.Snell L.B.
    Bonsall D.Bonsall D.
    Volz E.M.Volz E.M.
    Curran T.Curran T.
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    Dabrera G.Dabrera G.
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    Bernardo M. GutierrezBernardo M. Gutierrez
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