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A potential early warning system for earthquakes based on two independent real-time precursors – the case of ecuador´s 7.8 mw in 2016

Abstract:

We propose a new potential early warning system for earthquakes based on a case study of the 7.8 Mw earthquake in Ecuador during spring of 2016. This seismic event allowed the unprecedented opportunity of data collection of two independent seismic precursors. The first precursor has been based on the radiation of the environment, which altered significantly hours prior the main earthquake. The second seismic precursor has been established by 24 GPS stations being situated all over the mainland of Ecuador, which registered several minutes before the main earthquake a significant alteration of their regular position. These measurements allow the exact position of every station yielding every second a signal to the main base. Such significant alteration from the main point cloud has been determined exclusively for the main 7.8 Mw earthquake, while other, less intense seismic activities have not been registered at all. Based on our measurements determined on real-time, we are able to conclude that both precursors independent from each other, are powerful tools for the establishment of an early warning system for earthquakes for intermediate- and short-term pbkp_redictions in active continental margins.