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COVID-19 and its impact on Ecuador's poverty: Scenario method

Abstract:

Government action taken to combat the pandemic paralyzes economic activities and affecting the working condition that is the main source of income for the population. Therefore, the objective of this research is to estimate and analyze the impacts of COVID-19 on Poverty in Ecuador using the scenario method. For this reason, based on data from the 2019 National Employment, Unemployment and Underemployment Survey (ENEMDU), six scenarios were built that they consider alternatives in terms of reducing household income and poverty rates were calculated, taking into account the monetary approach and under the methodology used by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC). The main results show that poverty in Ecuador could increase to 27.2%, 29.2% or 34.7%, if household incomes decrease by 5%, 10% or 20% respectively.