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A simulation tool for socio-economic planning on forest fire suppression management

Abstract:

Fire is the primary natural disturbance mechanism of Mediterranean landscapes. In the last part of the XX century, the modification of the frequency and severity of fire has brought about important socio-economic impacts of forest fires. The traditional economic valuation of the forest tends to underestimate the true value of forest. This value not only includes tangibles assets, as well as values associated with environmental services and landscape goods. All of the goods and natural services must be considered to indicate the total socioeconomic vulnerability of the ecosystem. Socioeconomic vulnerability has been determined through the development of a set of algorithms. The above make possible the evaluation of consequences of a potential forest fires (on tangible and intangible natural resources). The validation of the methodology was integrated into the framework of a research project (Spain's Ministry of Education and Science). It has been focused on making easier the adaptation and application of the procedure in other areas. The real applications were shown by socio-economical damage technical reports. The interactions between fire behavior and natural resources assessment are fundamental in forest management. We studied multivariable fire disturbances in order to supply a framework for understanding the wildfire effects providing a baseline for their socioeconomic assessment. The ecosystem resilience depends on the type of vegetation and the fire severity. The resilience on an ecosystem prior to a fire can be pbkp_redicted by the simulation of landscape structure and management restoration experiences. The fire severity is calculated by fire behavior through historical weather, fuel model and topographical influences. Fire Intensity Level (FIL) is determined by the integration of the above factors. The results of the standardized indices for vegetation composition and fire severity produce percent depreciation rates. Economic depreciation in natural resources due to the direct impact of forest fires can be assessed by rate of deterioration. The determination of an algorithm integrating socio-economic assessment, resilience and fire severity constitutes the central axis for this research. The operational capacities imply an increase in the development of tools based on Geographic Information System (GIS). The demand from agencies and institutions is based on the fundamental premise of providing a versatile tool to be used during operational management by the manager or officials responsible for forest fire suppression.