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A stochastic network model for uncertain spatiotemporal weather impact at the strategic time horizon

Abstract:

Motivated by challenges in flow-contingency management, we introduce a stochastic network model for the spatiotemporal evolution of weather impact at a strategic time horizon. Specifically, we argue that a model that represents weather-impact propagation using local probabilistic influences can capture the rich dynamics and inherent variability in weather impact at the spatial and temporal resolution of interest. We then illustrate that such an influence model for weather impact is simple enough to permit a family of analyses that are needed for decision-support, including 1) model parameterization to meet probabilistic forecasts at time snapshots, 2) fast simulation of representative weather trajectories and impact probabilities, and 3) computation of correlations and higher-order statistics in weather impact. Also, lower-order representation of the stochastic dynamics at critical locations in the airspace is considered. Finally, a brief exploratory discussion is given on how the weather-impact model may eventually be used in tandem with network flow models to study flow contingency management. © 2010 by Mitre Corporation. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.