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A taxonomy of key uncertainties using high-level frameworks for energy modelling

Abstract:

This paper provides a tri-dimensional taxonomy of uncertainty of the Newcastle CarbonRoute Framework (NCRF) using a concept map. It requires the identification of the sources, issues and sub-issues of the uncertainties in the modelling process. These issues can be broken down in the contributing forms of uncertainty and classified as either contributing to inaccuracy (systematic bias of the data) or imprecision (random variability of the data). Much of the data used in this research comes from surveys based on samples; some inaccuracy is unavoidable in the energy estimations presented. The most significant source of inaccuracy is perhaps the sampling error, where the characteristics of a sample do not exactly match the characteristics of the whole population. The purpose of the research is to develop a taxonomy that shows how uncertainties are propagated through the modelling process (data - model - refinement - validation) and in the resulting estimates of annual energy consumption.