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Changes in Non-current Assets and in Property, Plant and Equipment and Future Stock Returns: The UK Evidence

Abstract:

We examine the effect of changes in non-current operating assets (NCOA) and of changes in property, plant and equipment (PPE) on future abnormal stock returns using a sample of 21,549 UK non-financial firm observations over the 1990–2012 event period. The results from a matching portfolio procedure and 4-factor regressions indicate that abnormal returns from investing in a portfolio of low-minus-high quintile NCOA and PPE change firms are between 5.5% and 6.1%. This negative association is confirmed by cross-sectional regressions. The economic significance of mispricing seems weaker than in the US and weaker than the mispricing of working capital accruals adjusted for depreciation in the UK. Changes in PPE drive the pbkp_redictability of share returns with respect to changes in NCOA. There is no significant evidence that return pbkp_redictability is stronger in less liquid firms. We find two strands of evidence that lend some support to behavioural explanations of pbkp_redictability through overreaction to investment. On one hand, fundamental information about investment explains one-third of the pbkp_redictability of returns while, on the other, pbkp_redictability is generally not significantly stronger in firms with high operating leverage as a proxy for risk.