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Climate change effects on the climate dynamics of Coastal Ecuador

Abstract:

The study presented herein characterizes climate for historical series (1982-2011) of average temperature and precipitation, also including future projections (2012-2099) for the Province of Santa Elena, westernmost point of continental Ecuador, which presents desert environment in the intertropical belt. The historical analysis shows increasing temperatures (0,038 ºC/year) and precipitation (0,196 mm/year). Comparison of historical and generated (65 climate models) climate determines scenario ECHOG A2 as the most appropriate to reproduce the climate of the zone. This model pbkp_redicts increases in temperature (+2,7 ºC), precipitation (+8,2%), and in maximum annual rain values, at the end of the XXI century. Evolution of temperature and precipitation does not lead to changes in annual climate characteristics, which is maintained as Semiarid, but the aridity index decreases monthly, from January to April.