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Climate change impacts on the aptitude area of forest species

Abstract:

Climate change has been most evident since the mid-twentieth century and has caused unprecedented planetary change. Economically, the agricultural sector may be the most affected by climate change, as agricultural and forest species are highly dependent on weather conditions. Given the background, the aim of this study was to assess the potential impact of climate changes on the delimitation of areas suitable for cultivation of the forest species Azadirachta indica (neem), Bactris gasipaes (pupunha), Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis, Pinus elliottii var. elliottii, Pinus oocarpa, Pinus taeda, Tectona grandis (teak) and Toona ciliata (cedar) in the Espírito Santo state, Brazil. For characterization of current climate, we used data from 1982 to 2011. The Global Circulation Model (MCG) and MRI-CGCM2.3.2 were used, respectively, to estimate mean annual precipitation and average air temperature for 2050. The projections generated point to reduction in monthly rainfall and increase in average air temperature by 2.1 °C. The annual water deficit will thus tend to increase in most regions within the state. Current and future agro-climatic zoning were compared using a paired comparison matrix. In future, all eight forest species will experience a reduction in suitable cultivation area, with teak likely to suffer least impact and cedar and pupunha likely to experience most widespread changes. Cedar, neem, pupunha, Pinus caribaea and teak will experience the highest percentages of exchange between classes, indicating the emergence of new areas suitable for cultivation under projected future climate conditions. The methodology can be adjusted to agricultural and forestry crops of other countries.