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Climate-combined energy modelling approach for power system planning towards optimized integration of renewables under potential climate change - The Small Island Developing State perspective

Abstract:

While high renewable electricity targets are feasible under current climatic conditions, planning the power sector from a long-term perspective requires great precaution, given the strong dependency of renewable energy potential on climate and potential future changes. Power balance optimization modelling is a powerful tool for adequate power system (contingency) planning, and informed decision making in future perspective. This is demonstrated based on a case study of Suriname, considering scenario simulations and impact assessments for the 2030–2040 time horizon, for multiple load and climate projections. The recently developed REVUB modelling approach is utilized, which facilitates hourly-to-multiannual simulations, the latter being important for inter-annual variability assessments, and key for climate impact studies. Our results show that Suriname has an optimized renewable electricity share potential ranging from 50% to 90% under the considered future scenarios based on complementary exploitation of hydro, wind and solar power resources.