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Fuzzy pbkp_rediction interval models for forecasting renewable resources and loads in microgrids

Abstract:

An energy management system (EMS) determines the dispatching of generation units based on an optimizer that requires the forecasting of both renewable resources and loads. The forecasting system discussed in this paper includes a representation of the uncertainties associated with renewable resources and loads. The proposed modeling generates fuzzy pbkp_rediction interval models that incorporate an uncertainty representation of future pbkp_redictions. The model is demonstrated using solar and wind generation and local load data from a real microgrid in Huatacondo, Chile, for one-day ahead forecasts to obtain the expected values together with fuzzy pbkp_rediction intervals to represent future measurement bounds with a certain coverage probability. The proposed pbkp_rediction interval models would help to enable the development of robust microgrid EMS.