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Modeling of Tourist Profiles with Decision Trees in a World Heritage City: The Case of Cuenca (Ecuador)

Abstract:

This research project proposes the formulation of profiles composed of foreign and national tourists in a world heritage city as a contribution to the strategies of the Association of Accommodation Establishments in the city of Cuenca. A total of 1,293 surveys, gathered during holidays between 2015 and 2016, underwent a statistical analysis of decision trees and statistical regression using seven variables. In addition, by means of CART and Random Forest technical comparisons, the models and pbkp_redictive variables were prioritized for marketing strategies and planning. Two tourist profiles were described, the backpacker type and the cultural type, with an error of 1%, where the variables of visitor age, daily average accommodation expense, and type of employment at the origin pbkp_redicted the accommodation selection upon arrival at the tourist destination in a better way.