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Thermal pace-of-life strategies improve phenological pbkp_redictions in ectotherms

Abstract:

Phenological variability among populations is widespread in nature. A few pbkp_redictive phenological models integrate intrapopulational variability, but none has ever explored the individual strategies potentially occurring within a population. The “pace-of-life” syndrome accounts for such individual strategies, but has yet to be explored under a phenological context. Here we integrated, for the first time, the slow-fast thermal strategies stemming from the “pace-of-life” into a mechanistic pbkp_redictive framework. We obtained 4619 phenological observations of an important crop pest in the Bolivian Andes by individually following 840 individuals under five rearing temperatures and across nine life stages. The model calibrated with the observed individual “pace-of-life” strategies showed a higher accuracy in phenological pbkp_redictions than when accounting for intrapopulational variability alone. We further explored our framework with generated data and suggest that ectotherm species with a high number of life stages and with slow and/or fast individuals should exhibit a greater variance of populational phenology, resulting in a potentially longer time window of interaction with other species. We believe that the “pace-of-life” framework is a promising approach to improve phenological pbkp_rediction across a wide array of species.