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Case studies of clinical decision-making through prescriptive models based on machine learning

Abstract:

Background: The development of computational methodologies to support clinical decision-making is of vital importance to reduce morbidity and mortality rates. Specifically, prescriptive analytic is a promising area to support decision-making in the monitoring, treatment and prevention of diseases. These aspects remain a challenge for medical professionals and health authorities. Materials and Methods: In this study, we propose a methodology for the development of prescriptive models to support decision-making in clinical settings. The prescriptive model requires a predictive model to build the prescriptions. The predictive model is developed using fuzzy cognitive maps and the particle swarm optimization algorithm, while the prescriptive model is developed with an extension of fuzzy cognitive maps that combines them with genetic algorithms. We evaluated the proposed approach in three case studies related to monitoring (warfarin dose estimation), treatment (severe dengue) and prevention (geohelminthiasis) of diseases. Results: The performance of the developed prescriptive models demonstrated the ability to estimate warfarin doses in coagulated patients, prescribe treatment for severe dengue and generate actions aimed at the prevention of geohelminthiasis. Additionally, the predictive models can predict coagulation indices, severe dengue mortality and soil-transmitted helminth infections. Conclusions: The developed models performed well to prescribe actions aimed to monitor, treat and prevent diseases. This type of strategy allows supporting decision-making in clinical settings. However, validations in health institutions are required for their implementation.